My sources tell me Sovereignty has gained weight, looks well-rested, and is training beautifully over the Saratoga surface. Hall of Fame New York trainer Bill Mott chose to skip the Preakness and aim for this race with his Kentucky Derby winner.  And, California-based trainer Mike McCarthy says Journalism is eating well and really seems to be thriving in the Saratoga environment. He will be the only horse in the race to run in all three jewels of the Triple Crown this year. 

 

While many believe this is a two-horse match race, there are a couple of other significant contenders in the field. 

 

Third-place Kentucky Derby finisher, Baeza, has taken to the Saratoga surroundings. He reportedly is lapping up his beloved carrot smoothies and nickering to his stablemates! Trainer John Shirreffs believes he is sitting on a big effort. And, Peter Pan winner Hill Road is campaigned by Saratoga trainer Chad Brown, so he has a  slight home court advantage. Both Baeza and Hill Road seem to want longer distances. I think either of them would have relished the traditional mile and a half Belmont distance. However, as the Belmont track is still undergoing major renovations, the race is back at the Saratoga course at a mile and a quarter for the second straight year. 

 

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert sends out Rodriguez, who is likely to be the early speed. However, Baffert has struggled on the big stage with his three-year-olds this season. Another Hall of Fame trainer, Todd Pletcher,  has two contenders – Crudo and Uncaged – who appear on paper to be a cut below this group. Both of Uncaged’s victories were on off tracks. I feel sure his colorful high-profile owner, Mike Repole, has been seen somewhere in the streets of Saratoga doing a rain dance this week. 

 

A little like the teams in the NBA playoffs, Sovereignty and Journalism have passionate fan bases. If you ask each of these camps, they will tell you with certainty their horse cannot lose. It is the classic east coast vs. west coast rivalry. Journalism’s jockey Umberto Rispoli was criticized for his Preakness ride as the horse encountered traffic issues down on the rail for a second time in his short career. Many believe Rispoli endangered the welfare of Journalism and the two horses he split to power through for the win. 

 

Sovereignty,  Baeza, and Hill Road are closers. The will need sufficient speed up front to close and win. Journalism is a stalker, and will need to stay out of traffic trouble. Rodriguez should make the lead and be joined up front by Pletcher’s front-runner, Crudo, owned by world-famous chef Bobby Flay. 

 

Is this a two- horse race? Probably.  However, the top jockeys in the nation are aboard seven of the eight contenders, and Saratoga does have a reputation as the “Graveyard of Favorites.” 

 

This handicapper believes Sovereignty,  Bill Mott, and jockey Junior Alvarado will once again prevail. Alvarado knows this talented horse well. He will not get him in traffic trouble. The horse is training like a beast and loves this distance.  And it’s New York where…unlike the Knicks…a New York horse should be able to finish the series.